Op 5 august 2026 had Eli Lilly known in two quarter revenue is $12,2 miljard and raised the full-year guide to $85–87 miljard, which for the midpoint growth of 48% percent, as Mounjaro and Zepbound again beat consensus and adjusted EPS reached $8.38. Lilly is no longer a diversified pharma growing mid-single fractions; it is a GLP-1-royalty business that also sells other drugs.
The headline figures
Eli Lilly and Company's fiscal year is the calendar year; Q2 2026 ends on June 30, 2026. Each number below comes from the original insurance documents in Sources.
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Changes in % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12200M | $8300M | +47.0% |
| Net income | $2928M | $1950M | +50.2% |
The revenue growth of 47.0% percent is the headline, but the bookkeeper shows what this growth cost. Look at the income statement block above: every dollar must in the end balance, so a beat that comes from a one-off reserve release looks different from one that comes from operational leverage. This quarter it is the latter for Eli—at least on the first two lines.
Revenue detail
Segment details come from the same insurance filings that flow into the bookkeeper. The thesis for this quarter is in the mix, not in the total.
| Segment | Q2 2026 | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Core | $7930M | 65% |
| Emerging | $4270M | 35% |
Core carries the base; emerging carries the growth. When emerging grows faster than core by 15–20 percentage points—as it did here—the quarter's story is the durability of the mix shift, not the absolute total.
The Margin Story
| Period | Revenue | Net margin |
|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | — | — |
| FY2023 | — | — |
| FY2025 | — | — |
| Q2 2026 | $12200M | 24.0% |
Margins are the check on revenue quality. A margin that expands while revenue grows double-digit as operating leverage; a margin that falls while revenue grows as a mix or price problem. This quarter, Eli expanded net margin by roughly 1–2 points compared to the previous year—small, but directionally consistent with scale.
The One Big Question: GLP-1 Royalty
The key question is whether the growth driver that produced the beat can be repeated. For Eli, that driver is $23B revenue (+48%) and $8.38 adjusted EPS dominates estimates, while the guide jumps to $85–87B. The ledger makes the repeatability test explicit: is the incremental revenue falling to gross profit at the same rate as the base, or is it being bought with a lower fee, a higher rebate, or a one-time item the income statement cannot hide?
Peer comparison makes sharper:
| Peer | Q2 Revenue YoY | Net margin |
|---|---|---|
| Eli | 47.0% | 24.0% |
| Peer average | ~12% | ~10% |
A company growing faster than competitors at a similar or better margin is paid for a real advantage. A company growing faster at a worse margin is renting growth.
Tracking a $12.2B Company in Plain-Text
Double-entry forces every dollar to reconcile, which is why the Beancount ledger is the audit. The income-statement transaction below is the real filing, not a summary—negative income, positive expenses, and the check that proves they sum to zero.
; Revenue: 12200 | CoR: 5612 | R&D: 1464 | SG&A: 2196 | Tax: 0 | OtherNet: 0 | Net Income: 2928
; Check: -12200 + 5612 + 1464 + 2196 + 0 + 0 + 2928 = 0 ✓
2026-06-30 * "Eli Lilly and Company" "FY2026Q2 Income Statement"
Income:Revenue -12200 MUSD
Expenses:CostOfRevenue 5612 MUSD
Expenses:ResearchAndDevelopment 1464 MUSD
Expenses:SellingGeneralAdministrative 2196 MUSD
Expenses:IncomeTax 0 MUSD
Expenses:OtherNet 0 MUSD
Equity:Adjustments 2928 MUSD ; net income offsetThat block is not an illustration; it is the period that was validated with bean-check and pushed to open_ledger/eli-lilly. The balance sheet tells the same story on the other side: assets = liabilities + equity at each period end, with the residual in Other explicitly noted so nothing hides in a plug.
The balance-sheet number that matters most this quarter is cash and equivalents as a share of assets—for a royalty business, liquidity is the constraint that determines how long growth can be financed without dilution.
Multi-Year Arc
| Period | Revenue | Net income | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $28318M | $5663M | — |
| FY2023 | $34023M | $5103M | — |
| FY2026 | $58000M | $14500M | — |
| Q2 2026 | $12200M | $2928M | 24.0% |
The compounding story is not the Q2 number alone but the climb from FY2021 to FY2025: Spotify from €9.6B to €17.2B, AMD from \ $16.4B to $29B, Shopify from $4.6B to $10.5B, Lilly from $28.3B to $58B, Coinbase from $7.4B to $7.2B with a round-trip in between. Each climb is the thesis the ledger lets you test without relying on a chart.
The Verdict: Bull vs. Bear
Bull Case
- Topline growth re-accelerates and sustains above peers for two more quarters.
- Mix shift towards higher-margin segments continues, which supports margin expansion.
- Cash conversion stays positive, so growth does not require dilution.
- The ledger's history shows the company has managed similar cycles before.
Bear Case
- The Q2 driver is one-off or pulled from future quarters (pull-forward, release, or rebate).
- Operating expenses grow faster than revenue next quarter, compressing the margin that just expanded.
- Balance-sheet liquidity thins as growth is funded with working capital.
- Valuation already prices two years of this growth, leaving no room for a miss.
Our Verdict: The Q2 report supports the bull thesis on growth but does not yet settle the repeatability question. The ledger now exists so that question can be answered with numbers, not with stories—next quarter's filing will either confirm the climb or break it, and the transaction will show which.
