Airbnb Q4 FY2025 Earnings: \$12.2B Revenue, 16% Booking Growth, and an AI-First Bet — Is ABNB Finally a Buy?
Airbnb has spent a decade redefining how the world travels. On February 12, 2026, the company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $2.78 billion — up 12% year-over-year and above the high end of guidance — while gross booking value surged 16% to $20.4 billion, the fastest growth in over two years. Nights and Experiences Booked hit 121.9 million, up 10% and marking the strongest growth quarter in over a year. The stock jumped roughly 7% the following morning. But dig beneath the headline beat and you find a company at an inflection point: hiring an ex-Meta AI leader as CTO, piloting hotels in three cities, and betting that conversational AI search will reinvent how 8 million listings meet 100+ million guests per quarter. The question for investors is whether the next chapter of Airbnb's story justifies the premium.
The Headline Numbers
Q4 2025 delivered $2,778 million in revenue, up 12% year-over-year and ahead of the $2,710 million consensus estimate. However, earnings per share of $0.56 missed the $0.66 consensus — largely due to a one-time $90 million international tax charge and elevated R&D spending as the company invests in its AI-first transformation. Net income was $341 million, down from $461 million in Q4 2024.
| Metric | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2,778M | $2,480M | +12.0% |
| Cost of Revenue | $487M | $427M | +14.1% |
| Operations & Support | $327M | $290M | +12.8% |
| Product Development | $589M | $538M | +9.5% |
| Sales & Marketing | $695M | $547M | +27.1% |
| General & Administrative | $411M | $248M | +65.7% |
| Net Income | $341M | $461M | -26.0% |
The full-year picture is where the structural story emerges:
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12,241M | $11,102M | +10.3% |
| Total OpEx | $9,697M | $8,549M | +13.4% |
| Interest Income | $705M | $818M | -13.8% |
| Income Tax | $626M | $683M | -8.3% |
| Net Income | $2,511M | $2,648M | -5.2% |
Revenue grew 10% to $12.2 billion — a new record — while net income came in at $2.5 billion. The modest net income decline is entirely explained by higher operating investments and lower interest income as rates declined, not by any deterioration in the core business.
Revenue Deep Dive: Seasonal Engine, Structural Growth
Airbnb's revenue exhibits pronounced seasonality driven by summer travel peaks, but the multi-year trend reveals a platform steadily expanding its addressable market. We tracked every dollar through double-entry accounting in Beancount. Here is the full quarterly trajectory across three years:
| Quarter | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY'25 vs FY'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1,818M | $2,142M | $2,272M | +6.1% |
| Q2 | $2,484M | $2,748M | $3,096M | +12.7% |
| Q3 | $3,397M | $3,732M | $4,095M | +9.7% |
| Q4 | $2,218M | $2,480M | $2,778M | +12.0% |
| Full Year | $9,917M | $11,102M | $12,241M | +10.3% |
Several things stand out.
Q3 remains the revenue peak, consistently generating 33-34% of annual revenue as summer travel in the Northern Hemisphere drives booking volumes. Q3 2025 was the first quarter Airbnb crossed $4 billion in revenue — a milestone that took the platform 15 years to reach.
Growth is reaccelerating. Q4 2025's 12% growth rate was the strongest fourth quarter since 2023, and management guided Q1 2026 revenue to $2.59–$2.63 billion, above consensus of $2.54 billion. The key driver: gross booking value growth of 16% in Q4, the fastest pace in over two years, fueled by the "Reserve Now, Pay Later" feature (contributing approximately 200 basis points) and a 20% jump in mobile app bookings.
International markets are diversifying the base. India bookings grew 50% in Q4, and the hotels pilot in New York, Los Angeles, and Madrid represents a direct push into the $800+ billion hotel TAM.
Expense Architecture: Investing for the Next Chapter
Airbnb's expense structure tells the story of a company making deliberate bets on growth while maintaining healthy margins:
| Category | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY'25 vs FY'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of Revenue | $1,703M | $1,878M | $2,086M | +11.1% |
| Operations & Support | $1,186M | $1,282M | $1,327M | +3.5% |
| Product Development | $1,722M | $2,056M | $2,354M | +14.5% |
| Sales & Marketing | $1,763M | $2,148M | $2,588M | +20.5% |
| General & Administrative | $2,025M | $1,185M | $1,342M | +13.2% |
| Total OpEx | $8,399M | $8,549M | $9,697M | +13.4% |
Product Development is the largest operating expense line and grew 14.5% to $2.35 billion, reflecting the AI-first pivot under new CTO Ahmad Al-Dahle (formerly Meta's head of generative AI). Airbnb's AI assistant already handles approximately one-third of North American customer service tickets, and the company rolled out conversational natural language search allowing guests to search by "vibe" or workspace proximity — a meaningful UX upgrade over traditional filter-based discovery.
Sales & Marketing accelerated 20.5% to $2.59 billion — the fastest growing expense line — as Airbnb invested aggressively in brand marketing and international expansion. As a percentage of revenue, S&M rose from 19.3% to 21.1%, a deliberate trade-off for long-term growth.
Operations & Support grew just 3.5%, the slowest of any line item, reflecting efficiency gains from AI-powered customer service automation. This is where the AI investment is already paying dividends.
FY2023's inflated G&A of $2.03 billion included approximately $621 million for an Italian tax settlement (EUR 576 million) in Q4 2023. Normalizing for that one-time charge, G&A has been relatively stable.
The Special Items: Understanding the Three-Year Earnings Arc
Airbnb's earnings from 2023 to 2025 cannot be compared at face value without understanding two major one-time events that distort the P&L:
Q3 2023: $2,695 million deferred tax asset valuation allowance release. This non-cash tax benefit — recognized when management concluded it was "more likely than not" that deferred tax assets would be realized — single-handedly boosted Q3 2023 net income to $4,374 million and FY2023 net income to $4,792 million. Strip this out, and FY2023 "normalized" net income was approximately $2.1 billion.
Q4 2023: $621 million Italian tax settlement. Recorded within G&A, this one-time charge pushed Q4 2023 to a net loss of ($349 million) and elevated FY2023 G&A to $2.03 billion.
With these adjustments, the true earnings trajectory becomes clearer:
| Year | Reported Net Income | Adjustments | Normalized Net Income |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | $4,792M | -$2,695M tax benefit, +$621M Italy settlement | ~$2,718M |
| FY2024 | $2,648M | None material | $2,648M |
| FY2025 | $2,511M | +$90M one-time tax charge | ~$2,601M |
On a normalized basis, Airbnb has delivered remarkably consistent profitability of $2.6–$2.7 billion over three years, while growing revenue from $9.9 billion to $12.2 billion. The margin compression is intentional — the company is reinvesting incremental revenue into product development and marketing to capture a larger share of the travel market.
Balance Sheet: Seasonal Rhythms and Growing Equity
Airbnb's balance sheet fluctuates significantly quarter-to-quarter due to the seasonal nature of travel bookings. Funds collected from guests before host payouts create large swings in both assets and liabilities:
| Date | Total Assets | Total Liabilities | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2022 | $16,038M | $10,478M | $5,560M |
| Dec 31, 2023 | $20,645M | $12,480M | $8,165M |
| Dec 31, 2024 | $20,959M | $12,547M | $8,412M |
| Dec 31, 2025 | $22,208M | $14,009M | $8,199M |
Total assets grew 38% from end-of-2022 to end-of-2025, while equity expanded from $5.6 billion to $8.2 billion. The liability growth primarily reflects Airbnb's scaling guest prepayment model — not debt accumulation.
Tracking a $12.2B Travel Platform in Plain Text
To fully audit Airbnb's financial architecture, we built the entire FY2023-FY2025 income statement in Beancount, the open-source double-entry accounting system. Every revenue line, every expense category, every tax provision is modeled as plain-text transactions that anyone can verify against SEC filings.
Here is what Q4 FY2025 looks like in the ledger:
2025-12-30 * "Q4 Revenue"
Assets:TotalAssets 2778 USD
Income:Revenue
2025-12-30 * "Q4 Cost of Revenue"
Expenses:CostOfRevenue 487 USD
Assets:TotalAssets
2025-12-30 * "Q4 Product Development"
Expenses:ProductDevelopment 589 USD
Assets:TotalAssets
2025-12-30 * "Q4 Sales & Marketing"
Expenses:SalesAndMarketing 695 USD
Assets:TotalAssets
2025-12-30 * "Q4 Interest Income"
Assets:TotalAssets 162 USD
Income:InterestIncome
Every figure in this analysis — from "$12.2 billion in revenue" to "$2.5 billion in net income" — is pulled directly from the ledger's transactions and closing entries, cross-referenced against Airbnb's SEC filings and quarterly shareholder letters. Explore the full Airbnb ledger interactively below:
The AI-First Pivot: Catalysts Ahead
The most important development from the Q4 call was not the revenue beat — it was the strategic pivot. CEO Brian Chesky is making three bets that could meaningfully expand Airbnb's addressable market:
1. AI-Powered Discovery. Airbnb's new conversational search lets users describe what they want — "a cozy cabin near hiking trails with a hot tub" or "a workspace-friendly apartment in Lisbon" — and get personalized results. This is a fundamental shift from filter-based search to intent-based discovery, and it leverages Airbnb's unique advantage: 8 million diverse, differentiated listings that benefit from natural language matching far more than standardized hotel rooms.
2. Experiences 2.0. After a quiet period, Airbnb is relaunching Experiences with broader categories and deeper integration into the booking flow. This is a high-margin, asset-light revenue stream that increases guest lifetime value without requiring new supply acquisition.
3. Hotels and Beyond-Stays. The boutique hotel pilot in New York, Los Angeles, and Madrid signals Airbnb's ambition to capture a share of the traditional hospitality market. If even a small fraction of the $800+ billion global hotel TAM flows through Airbnb, the revenue implications are material.
The Verdict: Bull vs. Bear
The Bull Case:
- FY2025 revenue of $12.2B (+10% YoY) with Q4 gross bookings accelerating to 16% growth demonstrates the platform is reaccelerating
- $2.5B in normalized net income on $12.2B revenue represents a 21% net margin — exceptional for a capital-light marketplace
- Q1 2026 guidance of $2.59–$2.63B beat consensus of $2.54B, signaling management confidence in continued acceleration
- AI-first pivot under new CTO (ex-Meta generative AI lead) positions Airbnb to improve discovery, reduce support costs, and expand into adjacent categories
- Hotels pilot, Experiences relaunch, and "Reserve Now, Pay Later" feature expand the addressable market
- India (+50% growth), mobile (+20% bookings growth), and international expansion diversify geographic risk
- 8 million listings and 121.9 million quarterly nights booked create network effects that are extremely difficult to replicate
The Bear Case:
- EPS of $0.56 missed consensus of $0.66, demonstrating that earnings leverage is not yet materializing despite revenue growth
- Total OpEx grew 13.4% while revenue grew 10.3% — negative operating leverage that compressed margins
- Sales & Marketing spending surged 20.5%, raising questions about the sustainability of growth without continued heavy investment
- Product Development at $2.35B (19% of revenue) reflects an expensive AI bet with uncertain near-term ROI
- FY2025 net income of $2.5B was actually below FY2024's $2.6B despite higher revenue
- Interest income declined 14% as rates fell — a headwind that will persist if the Fed continues cutting
- Regulatory risk around short-term rentals continues in major markets (New York, Barcelona, Paris)
- At $120+ per share, the stock trades at approximately 30x forward earnings — not cheap for a company growing revenue at 10%
Our Take: Airbnb delivered where it matters most in Q4 — gross bookings accelerated to 16% growth, the fastest in two years, and revenue beat expectations. The EPS miss is noise driven by a one-time tax charge and deliberate R&D investment, not fundamental deterioration. The three-year financial record reveals a company generating $2.5–$2.7 billion in normalized annual profit with remarkable consistency, while growing revenue from under $10 billion to over $12 billion.
The critical question is whether the AI-first pivot and beyond-stays expansion can reignite double-digit growth beyond 2026. If the hotel pilot scales, Experiences 2.0 drives incremental bookings, and AI search improves conversion rates — all plausible given the early signals — Airbnb's current valuation may look reasonable in hindsight. At $120 per share with consensus revenue estimates pointing to $13.5 billion in 2026, Airbnb is priced for moderate growth. If management delivers on its ambition to transform from a home-sharing platform into a comprehensive travel operating system, the upside could be significant. The risk-reward favors patient bulls who believe the best chapter of Airbnb's story is still ahead.
