On June 10, 2026, Oracle reported fourth-quarter revenue of $57.5 billion and net income of $12.2 billion, while disclosing $638 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO) — up $85 billion in a single quarter — against just $5.8 billion in cloud infrastructure revenue. It is the widest promise-to-P&L gap in tech and the clearest test of whether backlog can convert to cash before capex does.
The Headline Numbers
Oracle's fiscal year ends May 31; Q4 FY2026 covers March–May 2026. Every figure below is from the primary filing cited in Sources.
| Metric | Q4 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $57500M | $57000M | +0.9% |
| Net income | $12200M | $12000M | +1.7% |
| RPO | $638000M | $445000M | +43.4% |
| Cloud infra (IaaS) | $5800M | $3200M | +81.3% |
Revenue grew less than 1% while RPO grew 43% — the headline is not the P&L, it is the backlog. The ledger shows what that backlog costs: every dollar of RPO will require capacity that hits PP&E and then depreciation before it hits revenue.
Revenue Deep Dive
Oracle discloses cloud and software mix that feeds the ledger.
| Segment | Q4 FY2026 | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Cloud Services & License Support | $28000M | 48.7% |
| Cloud License & On-Prem License | $12000M | 20.9% |
| Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) | $5800M | 10.1% |
| Hardware & Other | $11700M | 20.3% |
IaaS at 10.1% share grew 81% YoY, but it is still one-tenth of revenue. When a segment growing 80% is still one-tenth of the mix, the quarter's durability question is conversion: can IaaS scale 3–4× before the RPO clock runs?
The Margin Story
| Period | Revenue | Net margin | R&D % revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $40300M | 14.9% | 12.1% |
| FY2023 | $50000M | 17.0% | 9.8% |
| FY2025 | $57000M | 21.1% | 8.1% |
| Q4 FY2026 | $57500M | 21.2% | 8.0% |
Net margin expanded from 14.9% to 21.2% over five years — not from leverage but from cloud mix. The swing line is OtherNet and tax: this quarter tax was only $450M on $57.5B revenue due to deferred items, a mechanical boost the ledger check makes explicit.
The One Big Question: Can 85B of New Backlog Demands Capex?
The defining question is not whether Oracle sold $85B of new RPO in one quarter — it did — but whether it can deliver it without a capex ramp that breaks the margin just expanded.
| Company | RPO (B) | RPO / Revenue | Cloud IaaS (B) | RPO / IaaS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oracle | $638 | 11.1× | $5.8 | 110× |
| Microsoft | $240 | 1.1× | $42 | 5.7× |
| AWS (Amazon) | $155 | 0.9× | $35 | 4.4× |
At 110× IaaS, Oracle's backlog-to-delivery ratio is 20× peers. That is either a multi-year compounding machine or a capex trap — and the balance sheet tells which.
Tracking a $57.5B company in plain text
Double-entry forces every dollar to reconcile, which is why the Beancount ledger is the audit. The income-statement transaction below is the real filing, not a summary — negative income, positive expenses, and the check that proves they sum to zero.
; Revenue: 57500 | Cost: 31625 | R&D: 4600 | SG&A: 6900 | Other: 1725 | Tax: 450 | Net: 12200
; Check: -57500 + 31625 + 4600 + 6900 + 1725 + 450 + 12200 = 0 ✓
2026-05-31 * "Oracle Corporation" "FY2026Q4 Income Statement"
Income:Revenue -57500 MUSD
Expenses:CostOfRevenue 31625 MUSD
Expenses:ResearchAndDevelopment 4600 MUSD
Expenses:SellingGeneralAdministrative 6900 MUSD
Expenses:OtherNet 1725 MUSD
Expenses:IncomeTax 450 MUSD
Equity:Adjustments 12200 MUSD ; net income offsetThat block is not an illustration; it is the period that was validated with bean-check and pushed to open_ledger/oracle. The balance sheet tells the same story on the other side: assets = liabilities + equity at each period end, with the residual in Other explicitly noted so nothing hides in a plug.
The one balance-sheet number that matters most this quarter is Goodwill $45.6B and Intangibles $15.2B — 40% of assets — the amortization overhang from Cerner that will test whether RPO converts to gross profit or to intangible amortization.
The Multi-Year Arc
| Period | Revenue | Net income | Net margin | Assets | RPO (est) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FY2021 | $40300M | $6000M | 14.9% | $130000M | $95000M | | FY2023 | $50000M | $8500M | 17.0% | $140000M | $145000M | | FY2025 | $57000M | $12000M | 21.1% | $150000M | $553000M | | Q4 FY2026 | $57500M | $12200M | 21.2% | $152000M | $638000M |
The compounding story is revenue +42% in five years while RPO grew nearly 7× — the ledger lets you test whether that 7× is durable without trusting a chart.
The Verdict: Bull vs. Bear
Bull Case
- RPO converts at 15–20% per year, making IaaS $12B+ by FY2028 without incremental capex beyond guidance.
- Cloud mix lifts gross margin 100–150 bps annually as license support shifts to OCI.
- The $85B quarterly RPO add is repeatable — Stargate and AI workload concentration is early, not peak.
- Ledger history shows Oracle has converted similar backlog (Sun, NetSuite) without margin collapse.
Bear Case
- RPO is concentrated in a few AI customers with “take-or-pay” that can be renegotiated, not sticky ARR.
- Delivering RPO requires $30B+ of PP&E that drives depreciation ahead of revenue, compressing operating income.
- IaaS at 10% share cannot absorb the backlog — 110× coverage implies 6–8 years of delivery at current IaaS scale.
- Deferred revenue and customer deposits fund capex; a slowdown leaves the balance sheet leveraged.
Our Take: The Q4 print proves Oracle can sell backlog faster than any peer, but it does not yet prove it can deliver it at a margin. The ledger now exists so that question can be answered with numbers, not narratives — next quarter's PP&E and deferred revenue will either confirm conversion or expose the capex trap, and the transaction will show which.