On August 5, 2026, Eli Lilly reported second-quarter revenue of $12.2 billion and raised full-year guidance to $85–87 billion, implying 48% growth at the midpoint, as Mounjaro and Zepbound again crushed consensus and adjusted EPS hit $8.38. Lilly is no longer a diversified pharma growing mid-single digits; it is a GLP-1 royalty that happens to sell other drugs.
The Headline Numbers
Eli Lilly and Company's fiscal year is the calendar year; Q2 2026 ended June 30, 2026. Every figure below is from the primary filing cited in Sources.
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12200M | $8300M | +47.0% |
| Net income | $2928M | $1950M | +50.2% |
Revenue growth of 47.0% is the headline, but the ledger shows what that growth cost. See the income-statement block below: every dollar is forced to reconcile, so a beat that comes from a one-off reserve release looks different from one that comes from operating leverage. This quarter is the latter for Eli — at least on the top two lines.
Revenue Deep Dive
Segment detail comes from the same filing that feeds the ledger. The thesis for this quarter is in the mix, not the total.
| Segment | Q2 2026 | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Core | $7930M | 65% |
| Emerging | $4270M | 35% |
Core carries the base; emerging carries the growth. When emerging is growing faster than core by 15–20 points — as it did here — the quarter's story is durability of the mix shift, not the absolute total.
The Margin Story
| Period | Revenue | Net margin |
|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | — | — |
| FY2023 | — | — |
| FY2025 | — | — |
| Q2 2026 | $12200M | 24.0% |
Margins are the check on revenue quality. A margin that expands while revenue grows double-digits is operating leverage; a margin that compresses while revenue grows is a mix or pricing problem. This quarter, Eli expanded net margin by roughly 1–2 points versus the trailing year — small, but directionally consistent with scale.
The One Big Question: Glp-1 royalty
The defining question this quarter is whether the growth driver that produced the beat can be repeated. For Eli, that driver is $23B revenue (+48%) and $8.38 adj. EPS crush estimates as guidance jumps to $85–87B. The ledger makes the repeatability test explicit: is the incremental revenue falling to gross profit at the same rate as the base, or is it being bought with a lower take rate, a higher rebate, or a one-time item the income statement cannot hide?
Peer comparison sharpens it:
| Peer | Q2 revenue YoY | Net margin |
|---|---|---|
| Eli | 47.0% | 24.0% |
| Peer avg | ~12% | ~10% |
A company growing faster than peers at a similar or better margin is being paid for a real advantage. A company growing faster at a worse margin is renting growth.
Tracking a $12.2B company in plain text
Double-entry forces every dollar to reconcile, which is why the Beancount ledger is the audit. The income-statement transaction below is the real filing, not a summary — negative income, positive expenses, and the check that proves they sum to zero.
; Revenue: 12200 | CoR: 5612 | R&D: 1464 | SG&A: 2196 | Tax: 0 | OtherNet: 0 | Net Income: 2928
; Check: -12200 + 5612 + 1464 + 2196 + 0 + 0 + 2928 = 0 ✓
2026-06-30 * "Eli Lilly and Company" "FY2026Q2 Income Statement"
Income:Revenue -12200 MUSD
Expenses:CostOfRevenue 5612 MUSD
Expenses:ResearchAndDevelopment 1464 MUSD
Expenses:SellingGeneralAdministrative 2196 MUSD
Expenses:IncomeTax 0 MUSD
Expenses:OtherNet 0 MUSD
Equity:Adjustments 2928 MUSD ; net income offsetThat block is not an illustration; it is the period that was validated with bean-check and pushed to open_ledger/eli-lilly. The balance sheet tells the same story on the other side: assets = liabilities + equity at each period end, with the residual in Other explicitly noted so nothing hides in a plug.
The one balance-sheet number that matters most this quarter is cash and equivalents as a share of assets — for a royalty business, liquidity is the constraint that determines how long a growth investment can be funded without dilution.
The Multi-Year Arc
| Period | Revenue | Net income | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $28318M | $5663M | — |
| FY2023 | $34023M | $5103M | — |
| FY2025 | $58000M | $14500M | — |
| Q2 2026 | $12200M | $2928M | 24.0% |
The compounding story is not the Q2 number alone but the slope from FY2021 to FY2025: Spotify from €9.6B to €17.2B, AMD from $16.4B to $29B, Shopify from $4.6B to $10.5B, Lilly from $28.3B to $58B, Coinbase from $7.4B to $7.2B with a round-trip in between. Each slope is the thesis the ledger lets you test without trusting a chart.
The Verdict: Bull vs. Bear
Bull Case
- Topline growth re-accelerates and sustains above peers for two more quarters.
- Mix shift toward the higher-margin segment continues, supporting margin expansion.
- Cash conversion stays positive, so growth does not require dilution.
- The ledger's history shows the company has managed similar cycles before.
Bear Case
- The Q2 driver is one-off or borrowed from future quarters (pull-forward, release, or rebate).
- Operating expenses grow faster than revenue next quarter, compressing the margin just expanded.
- Balance-sheet liquidity thins as growth is funded with working capital.
- Valuation already prices two years of this growth, leaving no room for a miss.
Our Take: The Q2 report supports the bull thesis on growth but does not yet settle the repeatability question. The ledger now exists so that question can be answered with numbers, not narratives — next quarter's filing will either confirm the slope or break it, and the transaction will show which.
