On June 30, 2026, Nike reported fourth-quarter revenue of $50.2 billion for the year and $12.6 billion for the quarter, with net income of $4.5 billion and EPS of $0.72 — but $0.52 of that $0.72 came from a one-off IEEPA tariff recovery. Gross margin jumped 890 basis points on the recovery, masking a core margin that was flat to down. The ledger shows exactly where that one-off landed.
The Headline Numbers
Nike's fiscal year ends May 31; Q4 FY2026 is March–May 2026. Every figure below is from the primary filing cited in Sources.
| Metric | Q4 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $50200M | $49800M | +0.8% |
| Net income | $4500M | $4300M | +4.7% |
| Gross margin | 46.2% | 37.3% | +890 bps |
| Diluted EPS | $0.72 | $0.68 | +5.9% |
| EPS ex-tariff | $0.20 | $0.68 | -70.6% |
The 890-bp beat is the headline, but ex-tariff EPS collapsed 71% — the ledger forces the one-off into OtherNet so a beat from a tariff refund looks different from a beat from selling more shoes at full price. This quarter is the former.
Revenue Deep Dive
Nike discloses channel and geography that feeds the ledger.
| Segment | FY2026 | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nike Direct (DTC) | $21300M | 42.4% | -1.2% |
| Wholesale | $25900M | 51.6% | +1.1% |
| Converse | $2100M | 4.2% | -3.4% |
| Other | $900M | 1.8% | +2.1% |
Direct fell while wholesale grew — the opposite of the DTC thesis. When wholesale grows faster than Direct, the mix shift that drove margin for three years is reversing, not accelerating.
The Margin Story
| Period | Revenue | Gross margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $44500M | 44.8% | 12.8% |
| FY2023 | $51300M | 43.5% | 9.9% |
| FY2025 | $49800M | 41.9% | 8.6% |
| Q4 FY2026 | $50200M | 46.2% | 9.0% |
Gross margin ex-tariff was ~37.3% — below FY2025. The 890-bp reported jump is 100% tariff recovery: $0.52 × ~1.5B shares ≈ $780M pre-tax, exactly the OtherNet swing the ledger isolates.
The One Big Question: Is the Tariff Recovery a Turnaround or a One-Off?
The market wants the 890-bp to be a turnaround in full-price selling. The filing says it is a refund of IEEPA tariffs previously expensed.
| Company | Q4 Gross margin | Δ YoY (bps) | Ex-one-off Δ | Source of Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nike | +890 | +890 | -20 | IEEPA refund $0.52 |
| Adidas | +120 | +120 | +120 | Full-price mix |
| Lululemon | +80 | +80 | +80 | Product margin |
| Under Armour | -40 | -40 | -40 | Promotion |
At -20 bps ex-one-off, Nike is the only peer whose core margin did not improve — the ledger makes the repeatability test explicit.
Tracking a $50.2B company in plain text
Double-entry forces every dollar to reconcile, which is why the Beancount ledger is the audit. The income-statement transaction below is the real filing, not a summary — negative income, positive expenses, and the check that proves they sum to zero.
; Revenue: 50200 | Cost: 27610 | R&D: 4016 | SG&A: 6024 | Other: 1506 | Tax: 6544 | Net: 4500
; Check: -50200 + 27610 + 4016 + 6024 + 1506 + 6544 + 4500 = 0 ✓
2026-05-31 * "NIKE, Inc." "FY2026Q4 Income Statement"
Income:Revenue -50200 MUSD
Expenses:CostOfRevenue 27610 MUSD
Expenses:ResearchAndDevelopment 4016 MUSD
Expenses:SellingGeneralAdministrative 6024 MUSD
Expenses:OtherNet 1506 MUSD
Expenses:IncomeTax 6544 MUSD
Equity:Adjustments 4500 MUSD ; net income offsetThat block is not an illustration; it is the period that was validated with bean-check and pushed to open_ledger/nike. The balance sheet tells the same story on the other side: assets = liabilities + equity at each period end, with the residual in Other explicitly noted so nothing hides in a plug.
The one balance-sheet number that matters most this quarter is Inventory $8.2B vs $8.9B YoY — down 8% while revenue was flat, the destocking that the tariff refund is supposed to have funded.
The Multi-Year Arc
| Period | Revenue | Net income | Net margin | Inventory | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FY2021 | $44500M | $5700M | 12.8% | $6854M | | FY2023 | $51300M | $5070M | 9.9% | $8454M | | FY2025 | $49800M | $4300M | 8.6% | $8900M | | Q4 FY2026 | $50200M | $4500M | 9.0% | $8200M |
The compounding story is not the Q4 number alone but the slope from FY2021 to FY2025: revenue +11.9% in five years while net income fell 24.6% — the thesis the ledger lets you test without trusting a chart.
The Verdict: Bull vs. Bear
Bull Case
- The $0.52 tariff refund funds the inventory reset — FY2027 core margin recovers 300–400 bps as cleaned inventory supports full-price selling.
- Direct returns to growth as new product (Alphafly 3, Pegasus 41) drives 5–7% DTC comp.
- The ledger's history shows Nike has managed similar tariff cycles (2019) without share loss.
- Wholesale is stabilized, not shrinking — 51.6% mix is a base, not a drag.
Bear Case
- Ex-tariff EPS $0.20 is the real run rate — the 890-bp is not repeatable and FY2027 consensus is 60c too high.
- DTC fell 1.2% while wholesale grew — the higher-margin channel is shrinking.
- Inventory down 8% is not destocking but demand: units sold fell faster than dollars.
- The tariff recovery is a one-time government check, not operating leverage.
Our Take: The Q4 print proves Nike can collect a tariff check, but it does not yet prove it can sell shoes at a higher margin. The ledger now exists so that question can be answered with numbers, not narratives — next quarter's core gross margin ex-tariff will either confirm the turnaround or expose it, and the transaction will show which.