Vail Resorts FY2026: Skier Visits Fell 13.4%, Profit Fell 47%

Vail Resorts lost 2.4 million skier visits in fiscal 2026 and kept almost all of its lift revenue. Visits fell 13.4%, to 15.3 million, in what the company called "one of the most challenging winters in history across the western U.S." Lift revenue fell only 3.5%, because roughly 70% of it had been sold as passes before the first chairlift turned. Total net revenue for the year ended July 31, 2026 slipped 4.3% to $2,838.2 million. Net income attributable to Vail Resorts fell 47.3% to $147.5 million. The advance-commitment model protected the top line. It did not protect the bottom line, and the next season's commitments are already running behind: pass units for 2026/2027 are down about 12%.

The Headline Numbers​

These figures come from the fiscal 2026 Form 10-K and the earnings release, both dated September 28, 2026.

The year's arithmetic is a lesson in operating leverage. Revenue fell by $126.1 million. Segment operating expense fell by $30.8 million, so about a quarter of the lost revenue came back as lower cost. The rest went straight through. Income from operations dropped $139.4 million, more than revenue did, because four smaller lines also moved the wrong way: depreciation rose $9.2 million, the gain on sale of real property was $11.2 million smaller, the charge for contingent consideration was $9.9 million larger, and a $6.9 million gain on disposal of fixed assets became a $6.8 million loss.

Below the operating line, interest did the rest. Interest expense, net rose $34.0 million to $205.6 million. The 10-K attributes $27.3 million of that to the $500.0 million of 5.625% senior notes issued in July 2025 and $8.9 million to a larger term loan balance. A 4.3% revenue decline became a 24.9% decline in operating income and a 47.3% decline in net income.

One calendar note. Vail's fiscal year ends July 31, and the fourth quarter is the off-season. The company lost $190.2 million attributable to shareholders in the three months to July 31, 2026, against a $182.4 million loss a year earlier. That is the normal shape of the year, not a new problem.

Revenue Deep Dive​

Vail reports three segments. Mountain is the business: $2,503.2 million of the $2,838.2 million total. Lodging added $328.8 million and Real Estate $6.2 million.

Lift is where the pass model shows. The 10-K says pass revenue was approximately 70% of total lift revenue in fiscal 2026, up from 65% in each of the two prior years. Pass product revenue rose by $38.8 million (the release puts the increase at 3.9%), while paid lift ticket revenue fell 17.5%. Skiers who had bought in advance paid whether or not the snow came. Skiers who decide at the window stayed home. The result is an odd statistic: effective ticket price, which is lift revenue divided by skier visits, rose 11.5% to $94.85. That is not a price increase. It is the same pass revenue spread over fewer days of skiing.

Ski school, dining and retail/rental have no advance commitment behind them, and they tracked the mountain. Ski school fell 10.3%, dining 7.6% and retail/rental 6.5%. Together those three lines lost $69.9 million, more than lift did. A pass holder who skips a trip still pays for the pass. Nobody pre-pays for lunch.

Lodging fell 1.6%, with managed condominium rooms down 9.6% and owned hotel rooms flat. The release credits a strong fourth quarter at Grand Teton Lodge Company, a summer business.

On demand, the release is careful. It does not claim strength. It says "North American summer demand was in line with expectations" and that "demand across the industry continued to be impacted by the effects of last season's historically challenging conditions." What it does claim is relative performance: "lift ticket and pass sales trends that are outperforming the industry" and "Third-party data continues to show Vail Resorts outperforming the broader industry, especially amongst comparable unlimited products." The filing gives no figure for the industry, so that claim cannot be checked against the ledger. What can be checked is the company's own pass count, and it is down.

The Margin Story​

Each year is shown as originally filed in its own 10-K. The fiscal 2025 10-K later revised fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2024 for immaterial errors, which lowers fiscal 2023 net income attributable to Vail Resorts to $265.8 million and raises fiscal 2024 to $231.1 million. The margins round to the same story either way.

The 14.8% operating margin is the lowest of the five years, and the mechanism is fixed cost. Mountain and Lodging operating expense fell only 1.5%. General and administrative expense was flat at $434.0 million against $433.7 million. A ski resort staffs lifts, grooms terrain and makes snow whether 15 million people come or 17 million. Management lists what did flex: $45 million of savings from its resource efficiency plan, $16.7 million of management incentive pay "that were not earned," and lower variable costs. Against that it spent "an incremental $20 million in marketing investment."

On pricing, the release points to "strong performance from our new product and pricing initiatives" and to "relative strength in unlimited pass products compared to lower-frequency product offerings driving improved mix and pricing performance." The pass numbers support the mix part of that sentence. Units are down about 12% and dollars about 6%, so the average pass sold is worth more than last year's. That is a richer mix on a smaller base. It is not pricing power in the usual sense, where a company raises prices and keeps its volume. The 10-K also notes that paid effective ticket price fell 8.8%, partly from new discounted ticket products.

Fiscal 2022 flatters the comparison slightly. That year's operating income included a $44.0 million gain on disposal of fixed assets, of which the 10-K attributes $32.2 million to the sale of a hotel in Breckenridge.

The One Big Question: What Does the Pass Count Say About Next Winter?​

A season pass is cash today for skiing later. Under the accounting rules that cash is not revenue when it arrives. It sits on the balance sheet as deferred revenue, a liability, and moves to the income statement day by day through the ski season. For Vail that makes one balance-sheet line a preview of the next income statement.

The release gives the preview directly. Through September 18, 2026, pass product sales for the 2026/2027 North American season were down approximately 12% in units, 10% in days sold and 6% in sales dollars, compared with the same point a year earlier.

Management's reading is that the missing buyers are late, not gone. The declines are "concentrated among Destination frequency pass products," and the company "believes these trends may reflect delayed purchase behavior among less committed guests rather than fully lost demand." That is plausible. A skier who paid for five days last winter and got poor snow has a reason to wait. It is also the first time in this ledger's five years that the commitment base is shrinking going into a season.

The July 31 balance had already turned. Current deferred revenue fell $35.6 million, or 5.9%, the first decline in the five years we model. That date falls after the spring pass deadline and before Labor Day, so the balance carries the early part of the selling season. It moved by almost the same percentage as the sales-dollar figure the company reported seven weeks later.

Guidance assumes the gap closes another way. For fiscal 2027 the company expects net income attributable to Vail Resorts of $158 million to $233 million and Resort Reported EBITDA of $805 million to $865 million. The midpoint implies Resort net revenue of about $3,108 million, 9.7% above fiscal 2026. The release says that recovery is "supported by increased lift ticket visitation, pricing growth, increased guest spending across ancillary businesses" and cost savings, "partially offset by lower pass demand trends." It also assumes "a range of normal weather conditions."

Read that carefully. With fewer passes sold, more of next year's lift revenue has to come from skiers who decide late, at the window, when they can see the snow. The pass model exists to move revenue away from that kind of buyer. Fiscal 2027 moves some of it back.

A cruise line faces the same accounting from the other side. In our Carnival analysis, customer deposits are the liability that turns into revenue as ships sail. The difference is that a cruise deposit buys a specific voyage. A season pass buys an option on weather.

Tracking a $2.8B Ski Company in Plain Text​

Deferred revenue is easy to describe and easy to lose inside a balance sheet. Double-entry makes it visible, because every dollar of pass cash has to sit somewhere until it is earned. Our ledger follows the conventions we use for every company in this series: how we model every company. Income postings are credits (negative), expenses are debits (positive), and Equity:Adjustments absorbs net income so the transaction sums to zero. Here is fiscal 2026 exactly as it sits in the ledger, in millions of dollars:

; Check: −2,838.204 + 1,485.203 + 167.960 + 11.985 + 305.610 + 434.006 + −13.163 + 19.239 + 6.823 + 205.623 + −0.829 + −11.129 + −0.080 + 23.209 + 56.212 + 147.535 = 0 ✓
2026-07-31 * "Vail Resorts, Inc." "FY2026 Income Statement"
  Income:Revenue                              -2838.204 MUSD  ; total net revenue (services and other + retail and dining + Real Estate)
  Expenses:CostOfRevenue                       1485.203 MUSD  ; Mountain and Lodging operating expense
  Expenses:CostOfRevenue                        167.960 MUSD  ; Mountain and Lodging retail and dining cost of products sold
  Expenses:CostOfRevenue                         11.985 MUSD  ; Real Estate operating expense
  Expenses:CostOfRevenue                        305.610 MUSD  ; depreciation and amortization (shown separately from segment operating expense in the filing)
  Expenses:SellingGeneralAdministrative         434.006 MUSD  ; general and administrative
  Expenses:OtherNet                             -13.163 MUSD  ; gain on sale of real property (a credit)
  Expenses:OtherNet                              19.239 MUSD  ; change in estimated fair value of contingent consideration
  Expenses:OtherNet                               6.823 MUSD  ; loss on disposal of fixed assets and other, net
  Expenses:OtherNet                             205.623 MUSD  ; interest expense, net
  Expenses:OtherNet                              -0.829 MUSD  ; Mountain equity investment income, net (a credit)
  Expenses:OtherNet                             -11.129 MUSD  ; investment income and other, net (a credit)
  Expenses:OtherNet                              -0.080 MUSD  ; foreign currency gain on intercompany loans (a credit)
  Expenses:OtherNet                              23.209 MUSD  ; net income attributable to noncontrolling interests, deducted as the filing does
  Expenses:IncomeTax                             56.212 MUSD  ; provision for income taxes
  Equity:Adjustments                            147.535 MUSD  ; net income attributable to Vail Resorts, Inc. offset (equity set by balance assertion)

The offset at the bottom is net income attributable to Vail Resorts. The $23.2 million that belongs to noncontrolling interests is its own posting, deducted the way the filing deducts it. Depreciation sits on Expenses:CostOfRevenue as a labeled posting because the filing shows it apart from segment operating expense.

Now the liability that previews next year. Vail's balance sheet does not show deferred revenue as its own line. It is inside "accounts payable and accrued liabilities," and Note 8 of each 10-K breaks that caption apart. The ledger keeps the pieces separate:

2022-07-31 balance Liabilities:Current:DeferredRevenue            -511.306 MUSD  ; deferred revenue (Note 8)
2023-07-31 balance Liabilities:Current:DeferredRevenue            -572.602 MUSD  ; deferred revenue (Note 8)
2024-07-31 balance Liabilities:Current:DeferredRevenue            -575.766 MUSD  ; deferred revenue (Note 8)
2025-07-31 balance Liabilities:Current:DeferredRevenue            -602.117 MUSD  ; deferred revenue (Note 8)
2026-07-31 balance Liabilities:Current:DeferredRevenue            -566.480 MUSD  ; deferred revenue (Note 8)

Liabilities are credits, so the balances are negative. The line grew every year from $511.3 million to $602.1 million, then fell to $566.5 million. That last step is the story of this post in one number.

The second story is in equity:

2022-07-31 balance Equity:TreasuryStock                            479.417 MUSD  ; treasury stock, at cost (debit balance)
2026-07-31 balance Equity:TreasuryStock                           1453.762 MUSD  ; treasury stock, at cost (debit balance)
2022-07-31 balance Equity:RetainedEarnings                        -895.889 MUSD  ; retained earnings
2026-07-31 balance Equity:RetainedEarnings                        -549.066 MUSD  ; retained earnings

Treasury stock, the cost of shares bought back, grew by $974.3 million in four years. Retained earnings fell by $346.8 million over the same period, because dividends ran ahead of profit. Total Vail Resorts stockholders' equity went from $1,612.4 million at July 31, 2022 to $240.5 million at July 31, 2026. In fiscal 2026 alone the company paid $317.1 million of dividends and bought back $45.0 million of stock, $362.1 million in total, against $147.5 million of net income attributable to shareholders.

The Multi-Year Arc​

Total debt here is long-term debt, net plus the portion due within one year, as each 10-K reports them.

Three things stand out. Revenue has been flat for four years: $2,889.4 million in fiscal 2023 and $2,838.2 million in fiscal 2026. Skier visits peaked at 19.4 million in fiscal 2023 and have not come back. Revenue held because each visit brought in more, and because pass revenue took a growing share of lift revenue, from 61% in fiscal 2022 to about 70% now.

Debt moved the other way from equity. Total debt rose from $2,734.0 million to $3,186.4 million while shareholders' equity fell by $1,371.9 million. The company reports net debt at 3.9 times Total Reported EBITDA at July 31, 2026. During fiscal 2026 it repaid $525.0 million of convertible notes and drew on its credit agreement, which is why debt due within one year fell from $599.5 million to $83.9 million while long-term debt rose.

Profit has stepped down as interest stepped up. Interest expense, net was $148.2 million in fiscal 2022 and $205.6 million in fiscal 2026. In a normal snow year that was a manageable cost. In a bad one it took almost half of operating income.

The Verdict: Bull vs. Bear​

Bull Case

• The model did what it was built to do. Visits fell 13.4% and lift revenue fell 3.5%, because about 70% of lift revenue was pass revenue committed in advance.
• Fiscal 2026 was a weather year, not a demand year. The company describes snowfall in the Rockies as "at or near historic lows," and guidance for fiscal 2027 assumes normal conditions.
• Costs are coming out. Management reports $45 million of efficiency savings in fiscal 2026 and expects about $25 million more in fiscal 2027.
• Mix is improving. Pass dollars are down about 6% on units down about 12%, with "relative strength in unlimited pass products."
• The refinancing wall is gone. Debt due within one year fell from $599.5 million to $83.9 million.

Bear Case

• The commitment base is shrinking. Pass units for 2026/2027 are down about 12%, and current deferred revenue fell 5.9% at July 31, the first decline in five years.
• Guidance needs window buyers. A 9.7% rise in Resort net revenue at the midpoint, with fewer pass holders, depends on "increased lift ticket visitation," the most weather-sensitive revenue the company has.
• The dividend is not covered. $317.1 million of dividends against $147.5 million of attributable net income, and against $248.0 million of operating cash flow after $231.6 million of capital expenditures.
• Interest is a fixed cost that grew 19.8% in a year when revenue fell.
• The demand claims are relative, not absolute. "Outperforming the industry" is not supported by any figure in the filing, and the release nowhere says demand is strong.

Our Take

Fiscal 2026 proved half of the pass thesis. Advance commitment kept revenue within 4.3% of the prior year through the worst western winter the company says it has seen. That is a real result, and most seasonal businesses could not match it. The other half of the thesis is that a committed base grows, and that half failed its first test: after one bad winter, 12% fewer passes are sold. The balance sheet leaves little room for a second miss. Shareholders' equity is $240.5 million, debt is $3,186.4 million, and the dividend costs more than twice what the company earned. We read the fiscal 2027 guidance as achievable with normal snow and not otherwise, and the number to watch before the snow falls is deferred revenue at October 31, the first balance sheet after the Labor Day pass deadline.