The FIRE community is recalculating. Wealth targets once set at $1M to $1.5M are now climbing toward $2M to $2.5M. Some pursuing Chubby FIRE are targeting $3M+. What changed?
Why the Number Keeps Growing
Several factors have compounded:
- Inflation (cumulative 20%+ since 2020)
- Healthcare costs (ACA premiums up 26% in 2025 alone)
- Sequence of returns concerns
- Longer potential retirement (40-50 years)
Stress-Testing Your Number
2026-02-01 custom "fire-stress-test" "scenarios"
; Conservative scenario (3.25% withdrawal)
portfolio-needed-conservative: "2461538 USD" ; $80K expenses
; Traditional (4% withdrawal)
portfolio-needed-traditional: "2000000 USD"
; Aggressive (4.5% withdrawal)
portfolio-needed-aggressive: "1777778 USD"
current-portfolio: "850000 USD"
years-to-conservative: "12"
years-to-traditional: "10"
The Variables Query
SELECT
YEAR(date) as year,
SUM(position) FILTER(WHERE account ~ "Expenses" AND NOT account ~ "Tax") as spending,
SUM(position) FILTER(WHERE account ~ "Assets:Investments") as invested
WHERE date >= 2020-01-01
GROUP BY year
ORDER BY year
Are your expenses growing faster than your investments?
Healthcare Inflation Modeling
2026-02-01 custom "healthcare-projection" "to-65"
current-age: "45"
retirement-age: "50"
medicare-age: "65"
years-without-medicare: "15"
current-annual-premium: "14400 USD" ; $1200/month
inflation-rate: "7%"
year-15-premium: "39654 USD" ; Compounded
total-healthcare-cost: "389000 USD" ; Sum of 15 years
Recalculating Annually
Your FIRE number is not static. Review yearly:
2026-01-01 custom "fire-review" "annual"
last-year-target: "1800000 USD"
this-year-target: "2100000 USD"
increase: "16.7%"
reason: "Healthcare cost revision + inflation adjustment"
Questions
- How often do you recalculate your FIRE number?
- What variables have changed most for you?
- Are you targeting a specific withdrawal rate?